A simulation model for predicting hospital occupancy for Covid-19 using archetype analysis.

COVID-19 pandemic has sent millions of people to hospitals worldwide, exhausting on many occasions the capacity of healthcare systems to provide care patients required to survive. Although several epidemiological research works have contributed a variety of models and approaches to anticipate the pandemic spread, very few have tried to translate the output of these models into hospital service requirements, particularly in terms of bed occupancy, a key question for hospital managers. This paper proposes a tool for predicting the current and future occupancy associated with COVID-19 patients of a hospital to help managers make informed decisions to maximize the availability of hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ensure adequate access to services for confirmed COVID-19 patients. The proposed tool uses a discrete event simulation approach that uses archetypes (i.e., empirical models of trajectories) extracted from empirical analysis of actual patient trajectories. Archetypes can be fitted to trajectories observed in different regions or to the particularities of current and forthcoming variants using a rather small amount of data. Numerical experiments on realistic instances demonstrate the accuracy of the tool's predictions and illustrate how it can support managers in their daily decisions concerning the system's capacity and ensure patients the access the resources they require.

A study of spontaneous narrative formation: coronavirus and narratives of doom

Is the frequently heard and seemingly innocent statement that the coronavirus was 'sent by Mother Nature to teach us a lesson,' evidence of an unconscious narrative that is driven by the fear and grief engendered by the pandemic? The idiom 'teach us a lesson' suggests that Mother Earth is angry with us and further, that the archetype of divine punishment – apocalypse – has been activated in the collective unconscious. This may be a dangerous time for the world psyche because an archetype, as objective pattern as well as a 'dynamic living agency,' can influence our emotions and behaviors. History has shown the devastation a powerfully activated negative archetype can engender. Can analytical psychology contribute to easing psychological suffering caused by the irrational fear of the end of the world? We suggest C.G Jung's 'transcendent function' can be invoked to spontaneously produce a new unifying, and therefore healing symbol. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Innovation: The European Journal of Social Sciences is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using Archetypes to Teach Systems Thinking in an Engineering Master's Course

Systems Thinking can help to solve complex problems in different domains. For an engineering master's program, we designed a seminar course to teach Systems Thinking. For the seminar we use qualitative models known as archetypes as conceptual models and the Covid-19 pandemic as problem context. In this paper we describe the course design and report findings from running it. Based on students' evaluation and the materials they produced throughout the course, our findings (1) support our design assumptions regarding student motivation, (2) give hints on students' struggling with Systems Thinking and understanding and applying archetypes in particular. With this we want to contribute to the discussion of how to teach Systems Thinking in Higher Education. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

The Anima as an Archetype of Human Resilience in the Face of Calamity.

This paper will provide a theoretical basis for looking at a dream in the analysis of a client during a calamity. Finding the archetype of the anima is a way of responding to a crisis, in this case to the COVID-19 pandemic period. With all the basic instincts disrupted by a catastrophe, the emergence of the anima, as archetype of life, is there to remind us how to survive and recover. The anima archetype, often representing psychological resilience in ancient myths, shows up in dreams to guide human transformation from the struggle to survive trauma to the art of living a full life.

Cet article fournira un fondement théorique pour l'exploration d'un rêve dans l'analyse d'un client durant un désastre. Trouver l'archétype de l'anima est une manière de répondre à une crise, ici à la période de pandémie. Lorsque que tous les instincts fondamentaux sont perturbés par la catastrophe, l'émergence de l'anima en tant qu'archétype de la vie vient nous rappeler comment survivre et se remettre. L'archétype de l'anima, qui représente souvent la résilience psychologique dans les mythes anciens, apparait dans les rêves pour guider la transformation humaine dans la lutte pour survivre au traumatisme et pour aller vers l'art de vivre une vie pleine.

Este artículo ofrece una base teórica para observar un sueño en el análisis de un cliente durante una calamidad. Encontrar el arquetipo del ánima es una forma de responder a una crisis, en este caso al periodo pandémico. Con todos los instintos básicos perturbados por una catástrofe, la aparición del ánima como arquetipo de la vida está ahí para recordarnos cómo sobrevivir y recuperarnos. El arquetipo del ánima, que a menudo representa la resiliencia psicológica en los mitos antiguos, aparece en los sueños para guiar la transformación humana en la lucha por sobrevivir al trauma hacia el arte de vivir una vida plena.

The COVID-19 Pandemic, Twitter, and the Archetype of “Country Savior” in the Ukrainian Case

The COVID-19 pandemic has attracted the attention of social scientists to the study of the role and influence of archetypes on public opinion. Ukrainian politicians have been informing citizens on social networks about the fight against the pandemic. It was presented as a feat, the salvation of not only the nation, but also of the world. Politicians have been independently constructing an image of the hero who helps to create a vaccine or arrange its supply and save the country’s population. To establish the archetype of the hero through the discourse of vaccination, this article analyzes the strategies of constructing the archetype of the “country savior,” using the Greimas actantial model. As a result, the actantial categories were discovered by using computer semantic analysis of tweets. The authors found that politicians used the archetypes of the saviorindustrialist (Viktor Medvedchuk), savior-inspirer (Volodymyr Zelenskyy), and savior-patron (Petro Poroshenko). A method for measuring negativism and its intensity in the messages of politicians was also proposed, and it was found that the government officials perceive the situation in a more positive way, while the opposition mostly negatively. It was also found that the amount of negativism and its intensity can be interpreted through the actantial models. © 2022, Universitatea din Bucuresti. All rights reserved.

Collaborative public service provision archetypes in healthcare emergencies: a case of COVID-19 administration in Sri Lanka

Purpose>This paper examines how the properties and patterns of a collaborative “networked hierarchy” incident command system (ICS) archetype can provide incident command centres with extra capabilities to manage public service delivery during COVID-19.Design/methodology/approach>The paper illustrates the case of Sri Lanka's COVID-19 administration during its “first wave” (from 15 February to 1 September 2020). Primary data were collected through in-depth interviews with government officials who were directly involved in the administration of the COVID-19 outbreak. Secondary data sources were government publications and web sources. The data were analysed and interpreted by using narrative analysis and archetype theory respectively.Findings>The findings highlight how Sri Lanka's public sector responses to COVID-19 have followed a collaborative “networked hierarchy” ICS archetype. More specifically, the government changed its normative ICS “properties” by incorporating a diverse group of intergovernmental agencies such as the police, the military, the health service and administrative services by articulating new patterns of collaborative working, namely, organisational values, beliefs and ideas that fit with the Sri Lankan public service context.Originality/value>In responding to high magnitude healthcare emergencies, the flexibility of a collaborative networked ICS hierarchy enables different balances of organisational properties to be incorporated, such as hierarchy and horizontal networking and “patterns” in public service provision.

The archetype of the apocalypse. Analysing the pandemics of racism, COVID-19 and climate change.

What we are witnessing in the present time in human history, in the 2020's, is a vortex of intersecting pandemics - jolting revelations that are unfolding with a terrific energy and force - so much so that we cannot ignore them or escape them. These include the world-wide pandemics of racism, COVID-19 and climate change. This paper argues that all of these swirling pandemics are manifestations of the archetype of the apocalypse, which is constellating now in a very powerful way. Any one of these phenomena could swallow humanity whole as a species. Together they represent a seemingly overwhelming challenge for us to meet over the next century of life on earth. If humanity cannot meet the challenge of these combined negative forces, it could simply perish. A multi-layered intersecting set of challenges such as this has never yet occurred in human history. We must therefore be very alert to what is going on, and as to how we can consciously mediate these threats, both individually and collectively. It also presents an unprecedented opportunity for humanity to evolve and grow psychologically both individually and collectively, nationally and globally.

Ce dont nous sommes témoins à l'heure actuelle dans l'histoire de l'humanité, dans les années 2020, est un vortex de pandémies qui s'entrecroisent - des révélations choquantes qui se déploient avec une énergie et une force formidables - tellement que l'on ne peut les ignorer ou leur échapper. Cela inclue la pandémie mondiale de racisme, la COVID-19, et le changement climatique. Cet article soutient que toutes ces pandémies tourbillonnantes sont des manifestations de l'archétype de l'apocalypse, qui se constelle en ce moment de manière très puissante. Chacun de ces phénomènes pourrait avaler l'humanité toute entière en tant qu'espèce. Ensembles ils représentent un défi apparemment insurmontable auquel nous avons à faire face durant le siècle à venir de la vie sur terre. Si l'humanité ne peut pas faire face au défi de ces forces négatives combinées, elle pourrait tout simplement périr. Un tel ensemble - de défis qui s'entrecroisent sur plusieurs niveaux - ne s'est encore jamais produit dans l'histoire humaine. Ainsi nous devons être très vigilants à ce qui se passe, et à comment nous pouvons consciemment opérer une médiation de ces menaces, à la fois individuellement et collectivement. Cela représente également une opportunité sans précédent pour que l'humanité évolue et grandisse psychologiquement à la fois individuellement et collectivement, au niveau de la nation et globalement.

Lo que estamos atestiguando en el presente de la historia humana, en el año 2020, es un vórtice de pandemias entrecruzadas - revelaciones que sacuden y se despliegan con tremenda fuerza y energía - tanto que no podemos ignorarlas ni escapar de éstas. Estas incluyen la pandemia mundial del racismo, el COVID-19 y el cambio climático. El presente trabajo argumenta que todas estas turbulentas pandemias son manifestaciones del arquetipo del apocalipsis, el cual se está constelando en la actualidad de manera poderosa. Cualquiera de estos fenómenos podría tragarse a la humanidad entera como especie. Juntas representen un aparentemente abrumador desafío para nosotros, a confrontar durante el próximo siglo de vida en la tierra. Si la humanidad no puede afrontar los desafíos de estas fuerzas negativas combinadas, podría simplemente perecer. Nunca ha ocurrido en la historia humana, una intersección de desafíos como éstos, en múltiples niveles. Tenemos que estar muy alertas respecto a lo que está pasando, y sobre cómo podemos conscientemente mediar estas amenazas, ambas individual y colectivamente. También presenta una oportunidad sin precedentes para que la humanidad pueda evolucionar y crecer psicológicamente, tanto individual, como colectivamente, nacional y globalmente.

Archetypes of the pandemic.

This paper attempts to read the psychological and emotional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic through the archetypal images contained in patients' dreams. In these dreams, symbols related to the power of nature and to extreme danger are paired with feelings of detachment that seem to point to a traumatic dissociation, due to the archetypal experience that erupts in familiar surroundings. Through the humanization of the ineffable experience, dissociation, which in the beginning of the pandemic showed in high levels of anxiety, panic attacks and depersonalization, can be transformed into the overview needed for the search for meaning. The container for this process of transformation is the analyst, the real, virtual or imagined one, and his or her ability to relate and feel.

Cet article propose une lecture de l'impact psychologique et émotionnel de la pandémie de COVID-19 à travers les images archétypales contenues dans les rêves des patients. Dans ces rêves, des symboles en lien avec la puissance de la nature et le danger extrême sont accompagnés de sentiments de détachement qui semblent indiquer une dissociation traumatique, due à l'expérience archétypale qui fait irruption dans des lieux familiers. Par l'humanisation de cette expérience ineffable, la dissociation - qui se montrait au début de la pandémie par de hauts niveaux d'anxiété, des attaques de panique et de la dépersonnalisation - peut se transformer en capacité à avoir une vue d'ensemble, qui est nécessaire à la quête de sens. Le contenant pour ce processus de transformation est l'analyste, réel, virtuel ou imaginé, et sa capacité à être en lien et à ressentir.

El presente trabajo intenta dar cuenta del impacto emocional y psicológico de la pandemia del COVID-19 a través de las imágenes arquetípicas contenidas en los sueños de los pacientes. En estos sueños, símbolos relacionados al poder de la naturaleza y al peligro extremo se combinan con sentimientos de desapego que parecieran indicar una disociación traumática, debido a la experiencia arquetípica que irrumpe en un contexto familiar. A través de la humanización de la experiencia de lo inefable, la disociación, que en el comienzo de la pandemia se expresó a través de altos grados de ansiedad, ataques de pánico y despersonalización, puede ser transformada en la necesidad de una nueva perspectiva en la búsqueda de sentido. El contenedor para este proceso de transformación es el o la analista, real, virtual o imaginado/a, y su habilidad para relacionarse o sentir.

The six scenario archetypes framework: A systematic investigation of science fiction films set in the future.

We propose a new scenario archetypes method generated by extracting a set of archetypal images of the future from a sample of 140 science fiction films set in the future using a grounded theory analytical procedure. Six archetypes emerged from the data, and were named Growth & Decay, Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds, The Powers that Be, Disarray, and Inversion. The archetypes in part overlap with and confirm previous research, and in part are novel. They all involve stress-point critical conditions in the external environment. We explain why the six archetypes, as a foresight framework, is more transformational and nuanced than previously developed scenario archetypes frameworks, making it particularly suited to the current necessity to think the unthinkable more systematically. We explain how the six archetypes framework can be used as predetermined images of the future to create domain specific scenarios, making organizations more resilient to critical, disruptive futures. We finally present and discuss a case study of the application of the method to create scenarios of post-Covid-19 futures of work. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q82_X7fN_XA).

openEHR Archetype Use and Reuse Within Multilingual Clinical Data Sets: Case Study.

BACKGROUND: Despite electronic health records being in existence for over 50 years, our ability to exchange health data remains frustratingly limited. Commonly used clinical content standards, and the information models that underpin them, are primarily related to health data exchange, and so are usually document- or message-focused. In contrast, over the past 12 years, the Clinical Models program at openEHR International has gradually established a governed, coordinated, and coherent ecosystem of clinical information models, known as openEHR archetypes. Each archetype is designed as a maximal data set for a universal use-case, intended for reuse across various health data sets, known as openEHR templates. To date, only anecdotal evidence has been available to indicate if the hypothesis of archetype reuse across templates is feasible and scalable. As a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, between February and July 2020, 7 openEHR templates were independently created to represent COVID-19-related data sets for symptom screening, confirmed infection reporting, clinical decision support, and research. Each of the templates prioritized reuse of existing use-case agnostic archetypes found in openEHR International's online Clinical Knowledge Manager tool as much as possible. This study is the first opportunity to investigate archetype reuse within a range of diverse, multilingual openEHR templates. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the use and reuse of openEHR archetypes across the 7 openEHR templates as an initial investigation about the reuse of information models across data sets used for a variety of clinical purposes. METHODS: Analysis of both the number of occurrences of archetypes and patterns of occurrence within 7 discrete templates was carried out at the archetype or clinical concept level. RESULTS: Across all 7 templates collectively, 203 instances of 58 unique archetypes were used. The most frequently used archetype occurred 24 times across 4 of the 7 templates. Total data points per template ranged from 40 to 179. Archetype instances per template ranged from 10 to 62. Unique archetype occurrences ranged from 10 to 28. Existing archetype reuse of use-case agnostic archetypes ranged from 40% to 90%. Total reuse of use-case agnostic archetypes ranged from 40% to 100%. CONCLUSIONS: Investigation of the amount of archetype reuse across the 7 openEHR templates in this initial study has demonstrated significant reuse of archetypes, even across unanticipated, novel modeling challenges and multilingual deployments. While the trigger for the development of each of these templates was the COVID-19 pandemic, the templates represented a variety of types of data sets: symptom screening, infection report, clinical decision support for diagnosis and treatment, and secondary use or research. The findings support the openEHR hypothesis that it is possible to create a shared, public library of standards-based, vendor-neutral clinical information models that can be reused across a diverse range of health data sets.

Archetype analysis of older adult immunization decision-making and implementation in 34 countries.

The global population of adults over 65 years of age is growing rapidly and is expected to double by 2050. Countries will face substantial health, economic and social burden deriving from vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) such as influenza, pneumonia and herpes zoster in older adults. It will be essential that countries utilize several public health strategies, including immunization. Understanding the different approaches countries have taken on adult immunization could help provide future learnings and technical support for adult vaccines within life-course immunization strategies. In this study, we describe the priorities and approaches that underlie adult immunization decision-making and implementation processes in 32 high-and-middle-income countries and two territories ("34 countries") who recommend adult vaccines in their national schedule. We conducted an archetype analysis based on a subset of two dozen indicators abstracted from a larger database. The analysis was based on a mixed-methods study, including results from 120 key informant interviews in six countries and a landscape review of secondary data from 34 countries. We found four distinct archetypes: disease prevention-focused; health security-focused; evolving adult focus; and, child-focused and cost-sensitive. The highest performing countries belonged to the disease prevention-focused and health security archetypes, although there was a range of performance within each archetype. Considering common barriers and facilitators of decision-making and implementation of adult vaccines within a primary archetype could help provide a framework for strategies to support countries with similar needs and approaches. It can also help in developing context-specific policies and guidance, including for countries prioritizing adult immunization programs in light of COVID-19. Further research may be beneficial to further refine archetypes and expand the understanding of what influences success within them. This can help advance policies and action that will improve vaccine access for older adults and build a stronger appreciation of the value of immunization amongst a variety of stakeholders.

Development of an openEHR Template for COVID-19 Based on Clinical Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was discovered in China in December 2019. It has developed into a threatening international public health emergency. With the exception of China, the number of cases continues to increase worldwide. A number of studies about disease diagnosis and treatment have been carried out, and many clinically proven effective results have been achieved. Although information technology can improve the transferring of such knowledge to clinical practice rapidly, data interoperability is still a challenge due to the heterogeneous nature of hospital information systems. This issue becomes even more serious if the knowledge for diagnosis and treatment is updated rapidly as is the case for COVID-19. An open, semantic-sharing, and collaborative-information modeling framework is needed to rapidly develop a shared data model for exchanging data among systems. openEHR is such a framework and is supported by many open software packages that help to promote information sharing and interoperability. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop a shared data model based on the openEHR modeling approach to improve the interoperability among systems for the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: The latest Guideline of COVID-19 Diagnosis and Treatment in China was selected as the knowledge source for modeling. First, the guideline was analyzed and the data items used for diagnosis and treatment, and management were extracted. Second, the data items were classified and further organized into domain concepts with a mind map. Third, searching was executed in the international openEHR Clinical Knowledge Manager (CKM) to find the existing archetypes that could represent the concepts. New archetypes were developed for those concepts that could not be found. Fourth, these archetypes were further organized into a template using Ocean Template Editor. Fifth, a test case of data exchanging between the clinical data repository and clinical decision support system based on the template was conducted to verify the feasibility of the study. RESULTS: A total of 203 data items were extracted from the guideline in China, and 16 domain concepts (16 leaf nodes in the mind map) were organized. There were 22 archetypes used to develop the template for all data items extracted from the guideline. All of them could be found in the CKM and reused directly. The archetypes and templates were reviewed and finally released in a public project within the CKM. The test case showed that the template can facilitate the data exchange and meet the requirements of decision support. CONCLUSIONS: This study has developed the openEHR template for COVID-19 based on the latest guideline from China using openEHR modeling methodology. It represented the capability of the methodology for rapidly modeling and sharing knowledge through reusing the existing archetypes, which is especially useful in a new and fast-changing area such as with COVID-19.